Macroeconomic forces and equity market dynamics: an empirical investigation of the Indian stock market
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.67497/ijrip.1.2.44Keywords:
Exchange rate, inflation, gross domestic product, labour force participation rate, stock market, macroeconomic variablesAbstract
The present study examined the influence of macroeconomic variables on stock market performance in India, with specific reference to the exchange rate, inflation, labour force participation rate, and gross domestic product. Against the backdrop of India's deepening financial integration with global capital markets and the growing complexity of its domestic macroeconomic environment, the study sought to identify which economic forces most meaningfully shaped equity market behaviour over the period 2014 to 2024. Secondary annual data were sourced from the World Bank Open Data platform and the Reserve Bank of India database, and the analysis was conducted using linear regression within the Jamovi statistical software environment. The findings revealed a nuanced and differentiated pattern of relationships among the variables under investigation. The exchange rate emerged as the only statistically significant predictor of stock market performance, underscoring the dominant role of currency dynamics and foreign capital flows in shaping Indian equity market behaviour. In contrast, inflation, labour force participation rate, and GDP did not demonstrate statistically significant relationships with stock market performance during the study period, suggesting that short-run equity market movements in India were more strongly governed by external macroeconomic pressures than by domestic economic fundamentals. These findings contributed to the growing body of empirical evidence on macroeconomic determinants of stock market performance in emerging economies and carried significant implications for monetary policymakers, institutional investors, retail market participants, and academic researchers. The study further highlighted the need for future research employing higher-frequency data, extended time horizons, and broader variable sets to deepen the understanding of the dynamic and complex relationship between macroeconomic conditions and equity market performance in the Indian context.
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